The Overshoot

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The inflation and income data are not yet in a place where officials are comfortable.
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Before getting worried about U.S.-led "deglobalization" or "fragmentation", it helps to have some context about what has already happened.
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The highest-income households pocketed a windfall earlier in the pandemic that they have since used to cover capital gains tax payments, weak asset income, and inflation.
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The goal is to restrict access to critical imports. Achieving this by boycotting or embargoing Russian exports was neither realistic nor necessary.
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Exports to Russia have been rising in recent months, although mostly for goods without potential military applications. But there are suspicious…
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The emerging consensus for greater government activism in domestic economic affairs should be paired with a more expansive vision of the constructive…
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Foreign banks and global hedge funds played an outsized role at a time when many reserve managers were selling.
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Consumer goods prices continue to fall, but more importantly, there was encouraging progress on stubborn services prices as well as underlying wage…
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Michael and I will be having monthly conversations about the global economy and financial system.
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Employment is rising as workers rejoin the labor force, while pay growth now looks to be slowing thanks to revisions. But other indicators suggest that…
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From puzzles in U.S. GDP data to the global impact of Russia's war on Ukraine, a look back on the past year and some thoughts on what might lie ahead.
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The Overshoot

Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
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