The Overshoot

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Less Tax Evasion, a Profit Boom, and a Persistent Interest Puzzle: Highlights of the 2023 Comprehensive NIPA Revisions (Part 1)
The quinquennial update of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts has lots of new information. But many questions about the state of the economy…
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Matthew C. Klein
The Fed's Bullishness Is Pushing Up Rates
The latest projections suggest that the economy has more underlying momentum than previously believed *and* that there is less need to crush the job…
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Matthew C. Klein
3
Is Underlying Inflation Finally Decelerating, Or Revealing Itself?
Recent price changes at sit-down restaurant meals suggest that normalization has finally arrived. But some other indicators point the other way.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
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Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
 • Matthew C. Klein
2
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
 • Matthew C. Klein
10
Europe's Imbalances in Pandemic and War
 • Matthew C. Klein
China Is Now Growing Slower Than the U.S.
 • Matthew C. Klein
4
Who Has Been Buying U.S. Treasury Debt?
 • Matthew C. Klein
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Danish Weight Loss Drugs vs. Chinese Cars: Two Models of Export Booms
Denmark is profiting from sales of a "miracle" medicine, while China is dumping vehicles in foreign markets to compensate for weak domestic demand.
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Matthew C. Klein
U.S. Job Churn Has Normalized. Wage Growth and Underlying Inflation Have Not. (Yet?)
The question is whether pay and services prices ex-housing and utilities are lagging indicators, or if there has been a persistent shift in expectations…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
The NY Fed Trading Desk's Time to Shine?
The most interesting paper from the latest Jackson Hole Economic Symposium suggests that central banks should think harder about managing market…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
China Is Now Growing Slower Than the U.S.
This is an unprecedented situation. What are the implications?
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Matthew C. Klein
4
The Unresolved Tension Between Prices and Incomes
U.S. inflation numbers continue to come in nicely, but the data on wages still suggest that the recent disinflation should eventually reverse even…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
Europe's Imbalances in Pandemic and War
How the major components of the world's third-largest economy have evolved over the past few years, from Italy's investment boom to Germany's export…
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Matthew C. Klein
Settling Into 4% Inflation?
The data on income growth, labor churn, and credit flows are all consistent with a "new normal" where trend inflation is slightly faster than before the…
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Matthew C. Klein
1
There Is No "Stealth Fiscal Stimulus"
The federal budget deficit is widening thanks to falling capital gains tax receipts and soaring net interest interest payments (including via the…
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Matthew C. Klein
5
The Case for "Higher for Longer": Prices are Disinflating, But Not Wages (Yet)
The continuing unwind of pandemic-related and war-related disruptions to consumption, production, and distribution is helping inflation. But that may be…
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Matthew C. Klein
2
The Overshoot
The Overshoot
Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
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