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Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
By Matthew C. Klein · Thousands of paid subscribers
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The "Data-Dependent" Fed and the Data
Interpreting the mixed signals across the economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs, and market pricing.
Sep 20
22
Russia's Imports Are Surging. Does It Matter?
By some measures, the impact of sanctions has peaked and is now diminishing. But the damage already done may be sufficient, especially in light of the Ukrainians' continued battlefield successes.
Sep 17
18
The Fed Tries to Get Out in Front
The most recent projections for growth, inflation, and interest rates "under appropriate monetary policy" may give the central bank more room for downside surprises, or even to adjust rates lower.
Sep 22
15
3
Trade Wars Are Class Wars, 32 Months Later (Part 1)
Reflecting on how the world has, and hasn't, changed since we finished the first edition of the book.
Sep 8
11
1
Most popular
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
20
2
Is the 2022H1 GDP Decline...Fake?
17
5
China's Unbalancing Is Going Into Overdrive
20
1
The Squeeze on Russia Is Loosening
13
3
Is America's Job Market "Too Good"?
12
2
U.S. Economic Data Aren't Adding Up
14
3
See all popular
New
Community
Solving One Puzzle in U.S. GDP Data (Maybe), Finding More
Private-sector wages may be overstated by 6%. While that would close much of the "statistical discrepancy" between GDP and GDI, it leaves many other…
Aug 31
14
5
A Few Puzzling Charts
A quick look at some banking and balance of payments numbers that look a bit odd.
Aug 24
11
1
The Sanctions' Impact on Russia
Digging into the (limited) data available on domestic production, consumption, credit, and the balance of payments.
Aug 19
15
1
The Squeeze on Russia Is Loosening
The latest numbers from the major manufacturing powers suggest that exports to Russia are rising.
Aug 16
13
3
U.S. Inflation May Be Turning the Corner
The Consumer Price Index was flat in July compared to June, thanks largely to a drop in energy prices that may or may not persist. The Producer Price…
Aug 12
9
1
Is America's Job Market "Too Good"?
Federal Reserve officials want to reduce businesses' demand for workers to put downward pressure on wage growth and contain inflation. Yet the pace of…
Aug 9
12
2
Price Discovery in Subscription Research
If you are thinking about upgrading to a paid subscription, or are undecided about whether to renew, now is the time to lock in the current rate. Plus…
Aug 2
26
2
Is the 2022H1 GDP Decline...Fake?
The details of the data continue to be confusing and contradictory. But the economy is almost certainly slowing even if it hasn't yet started shrinking.
Jul 31
17
5
See all
Most popular
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
20
2
Is the 2022H1 GDP Decline...Fake?
17
5
China's Unbalancing Is Going Into Overdrive
20
1
The Squeeze on Russia Is Loosening
13
3
Is America's Job Market "Too Good"?
12
2
U.S. Economic Data Aren't Adding Up
14
3
See all popular
The Overshoot
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