The Overshoot

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The Fed's Bullishness Is Pushing Up Rates
The latest projections suggest that the economy has more underlying momentum than previously believed *and* that there is less need to crush the job…
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Matthew C. Klein
1
Is Underlying Inflation Finally Decelerating, Or Revealing Itself?
Recent price changes at sit-down restaurant meals suggest that normalization has finally arrived. But some other indicators point the other way.
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Matthew C. Klein
1
Danish Weight Loss Drugs vs. Chinese Cars: Two Models of Export Booms
Denmark is profiting from sales of a "miracle" medicine, while China is dumping vehicles in foreign markets to compensate for weak domestic demand.
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Matthew C. Klein
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Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
 • Matthew C. Klein
2
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
 • Matthew C. Klein
10
Europe's Imbalances in Pandemic and War
 • Matthew C. Klein
China Is Now Growing Slower Than the U.S.
 • Matthew C. Klein
4
"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"
 • Matthew C. Klein
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U.S. Job Churn Has Normalized. Wage Growth and Underlying Inflation Have Not. (Yet?)
The question is whether pay and services prices ex-housing and utilities are lagging indicators, or if there has been a persistent shift in expectations…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
The NY Fed Trading Desk's Time to Shine?
The most interesting paper from the latest Jackson Hole Economic Symposium suggests that central banks should think harder about managing market…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
China Is Now Growing Slower Than the U.S.
This is an unprecedented situation. What are the implications?
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
4
The Unresolved Tension Between Prices and Incomes
U.S. inflation numbers continue to come in nicely, but the data on wages still suggest that the recent disinflation should eventually reverse even…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
Europe's Imbalances in Pandemic and War
How the major components of the world's third-largest economy have evolved over the past few years, from Italy's investment boom to Germany's export…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
Settling Into 4% Inflation?
The data on income growth, labor churn, and credit flows are all consistent with a "new normal" where trend inflation is slightly faster than before the…
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Matthew C. Klein
1
There Is No "Stealth Fiscal Stimulus"
The federal budget deficit is widening thanks to falling capital gains tax receipts and soaring net interest interest payments (including via the…
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Matthew C. Klein
5
The Case for "Higher for Longer": Prices are Disinflating, But Not Wages (Yet)
The continuing unwind of pandemic-related and war-related disruptions to consumption, production, and distribution is helping inflation. But that may be…
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Matthew C. Klein
2
New Episode of UN/BALANCED!
Michael Pettis and I talk about China's weak recovery from "Covid Zero", how China's leaders resemble Herbert Hoover, mislearning the lessons from…
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Matthew C. Klein
The Overshoot
The Overshoot
Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
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