The Overshoot

The Overshoot

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The Overshoot
The Overshoot
The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down
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The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down

That is not a problem, but it has implications for inflation and interest rates. Plus: inside the September 2024 NIPA revisions.

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Matthew C. Klein
Oct 12, 2024
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The Overshoot
The Overshoot
The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down
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American incomes have been rising at a 6% annualized rate for the past two years—and this shows no signs of changing. Little wonder that measures of underlying inflation remain ~1-1.5 percentage points annualized faster than before the pandemic, even if productivity and employment also seem to be rising faster.

Rather than recapitulate how I think about these issues, this note will be relatively light on text to keep the focus on the charts.

The Job Market and Labor Income

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