The Overshoot

The Overshoot

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The Overshoot
The Overshoot
Russia's Attack on the World's Food Supply
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Russia's Attack on the World's Food Supply

Hundreds of millions of people depend on crops grown near the Black Sea that may not get planted, harvested, or exported this year. Here's how the rest of the world can help.

Matthew C. Klein's avatar
Matthew C. Klein
Mar 15, 2022
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The Overshoot
Russia's Attack on the World's Food Supply
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is jeopardizing the global production and distribution of wheat, as well as barley, corn, and sunflower oil.1 Importers of those agricultural products are poised to face substantially higher prices, if not outright shortages, unless something is done. The peoples of North Africa and the Middle East are at the greatest risk.

The good news is that the rest of the world has ability to completely offset the impact. There is more than enough grain in storage to cover the loss of Russian and Ukrainian exports for several years, if need be. There is also substantial scope for U.S. farmers to produce more wheat if they cut back on growing corn and soy. Global coordination among the major consumers and the major grain producers (other than Russia and Ukraine) should be sufficient to ensure that everyone outside of the combat zone has plenty of food.

The Looming Wheat Squeeze

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