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It would be very interesting to see what your thoughts are on the surplus of different oil exporting countries. For example Norway. How much of a surplus is just the sensible way of handling the cyclical nature of oil prices and how much is repression of domestic demand as China and Germany.

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Super illuminating thank you.

If I could ask, in the link to the Kiel working paper you provided about Germany's terrible track record of investing abroad, there is a table showing the US seems to have meanwhile an excellent track record at least between 1975 - 2020. What does this actually mean? Are Americans on average much more astute investors / businessmen abroad? Or is there something else going on? (You don't quite address this in the section about how America's current account deficit is not about superior returns). Thank you.

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Stunning writing! I suggest reading this article and then jump on Marcello De Cecco masterpiece Money and Empire that reads it in terms of monetary flows.

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