U.S. inflation numbers continue to come in nicely, but the data on wages still suggest that the recent disinflation should eventually reverse even without new supply shocks.
Two sides to this argument. One could argue that wages are a lagging indicator and that current wage increases are reflective of past inflation. There is another side though and wage growth does mirror recent interest rate increases in the intermediate to longer term tenors in the treasury market and recent rises in commodity prices. Possibly we're experiencing the end of the post GFC "savings surplus" and the onset of above trend (since the GFC) growth on the demand side. We shall see.
When you mention American Consumer de-levering, what're the primary sources of American Consumer leverage (not counting mortgage, I assume)? Credit cards?