The Overshoot
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Archive
About
Latest
Top
Discussions
How Many Benign Inflation Prints Are Enough?
We should be cautious about overemphasizing the data from May and June
Jul 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
Share this post
How Many Benign Inflation Prints Are Enough?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
June 2024
Are Consumers Retrenching?
"Immaculate disinflation" works best if consumer spending rises less than incomes. That may finally be happening.
Jun 29
•
Matthew C. Klein
15
Share this post
Are Consumers Retrenching?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
Mapping Chinese Capital Flight via the Sinaloa Cartel
The U.S. Department of Justice is charging some creative intermediaries for figuring out how to match drug dealers who want to launder dirty money with…
Jun 27
•
Matthew C. Klein
26
Share this post
Mapping Chinese Capital Flight via the Sinaloa Cartel
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
The Fed Looks Through a Great Inflation Print
After being burned by the unwelcome inflation surprises of the first few months of 2024, they are now justifiably reluctant to be fooled again, even if…
Jun 13
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
Share this post
The Fed Looks Through a Great Inflation Print
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
The Curious Case of Australia's (Brief?) Current Account Surplus
For decades, Australians spent more than they generated in income, raising finance from abroad to make up the difference. That has reversed dramatically…
Jun 10
•
Matthew C. Klein
14
Share this post
The Curious Case of Australia's (Brief?) Current Account Surplus
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
Perhaps Wage Growth Isn't Slowing After All?
The typical worker's pay jumped in May even as the number of people working continued to rise briskly. But there are a few signs of slowing in the job…
Jun 8
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
Share this post
Perhaps Wage Growth Isn't Slowing After All?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
Is Consumer Spending Slowing?
Perhaps, but so far this does not yet seem to be showing up as slower inflation. Plus: more on the latest GDP data.
Jun 1
•
Matthew C. Klein
19
Share this post
Is Consumer Spending Slowing?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
May 2024
The Inflation Outlook Is Getting Better, But Also Worse?
Services prices might be moderating, but input costs for manufactured goods may be going the wrong way despite weakening consumer demand.
May 22
•
Matthew C. Klein
19
Share this post
The Inflation Outlook Is Getting Better, But Also Worse?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage May Be Smaller Than It Seems
After accounting for changes in duration and reverse repos, headline estimates of quantity-based policy tightening may be overstated.
May 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
19
Share this post
Fed Balance Sheet Shrinkage May Be Smaller Than It Seems
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
2
Is Nominal Wage Growth Starting to Slow?
The April numbers suggest that the recent slowdown in average hourly pay growth since January could be something more than a fluke. That would be a big…
May 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
14
Share this post
Is Nominal Wage Growth Starting to Slow?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
2
The 6% Solution?
U.S. spending and incomes continue to grow a bit faster than before the pandemic. And that's okay.
May 2
•
Matthew C. Klein
17
Share this post
The 6% Solution?
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
1
April 2024
Chinese "Overcapacity" Is Not the Problem. Underconsumption Is.
We are far from overcoming humanity's material needs, which means we need more production. The problem is not "excess" investment in capacity, but…
Apr 22
•
Matthew C. Klein
84
Share this post
Chinese "Overcapacity" Is Not the Problem. Underconsumption Is.
theovershoot.co
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
6
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Note
Other
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts