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How Credible Is the 2025Q1 GDP Decline?
Inventory accumulation is almost certainly being undercounted. Data center investment may also be undercounted. But there was still a substantial…
Jun 4
•
Matthew C. Klein
15
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How Credible Is the 2025Q1 GDP Decline?
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May 2025
This is What Normalization Looks Like (Mostly)
Long-end interest rates are rising after a prolonged period of being unusually low relative to short-end rates. Even the moves in Japan look less scary…
May 23
•
Matthew C. Klein
37
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This is What Normalization Looks Like (Mostly)
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Exorbitant Privileges, Burdens, etc. and the Implications for Fiscal Policy
The U.S. dollar is widely used outside the United States. That has implications for Americans that need to be managed, creating a tradeoff between…
May 17
•
Matthew C. Klein
32
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Exorbitant Privileges, Burdens, etc. and the Implications for Fiscal Policy
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China's Edge in the "Trade Struggle" is More Theoretical than Real
It *should* be easier to replace lost demand than lost supply, but there are good reasons to wonder whether it is actually possible for the party-state…
May 5
•
Matthew C. Klein
42
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China's Edge in the "Trade Struggle" is More Theoretical than Real
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April 2025
Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks
The limits of U.S.-China decoupling, the principled case for an American industrial renaissance, and the scope for (desirability of?) capital flight…
Apr 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
45
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Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks
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How to Think About the Tariffs
This is bad policy, executed thoughtlessly. But it is worth thinking through exactly *why* it is bad.
Apr 4
•
Matthew C. Klein
150
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How to Think About the Tariffs
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Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics
Goods inflation was already accelerating while job churn had stopped falling. Also: watch out for upward revisions to healthcare inflation.
Apr 2
•
Matthew C. Klein
18
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Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics
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March 2025
The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle
By doing exactly what they were planning to do before, at least for now.
Mar 21
•
Matthew C. Klein
22
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The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle
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Inside the BTFP Subsidy
Banks and credit unions earned free money by borrowing from the Fed's "emergency" program and then lending it back to the Fed (or other banks) at higher…
Mar 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
20
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Inside the BTFP Subsidy
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The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
Imports of gold bars turn out to be surprisingly important. Plus: some thoughts on the February jobs numbers.
Mar 8
•
Matthew C. Klein
27
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The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
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The U.S. Chooses Stagflation
Policy choices over the past six weeks risk pushing a previously strong economy into a world of faster inflation and slower real growth.
Mar 6
•
Matthew C. Klein
42
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The U.S. Chooses Stagflation
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The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now
An accounting gimmick that is appropriate for the seriousness and stupidity of the times.
Mar 4
•
Matthew C. Klein
45
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The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now
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