The Overshoot

Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective

As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited.

Mar 27 • Matthew C. Klein

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The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks

Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things".

Mar 19 • Matthew C. Klein

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Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook

Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is…

Mar 13 • Matthew C. Klein

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If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before...

Quantifying its size is impossible given how little we know about when and how this will end, but the direction of the impact is obvious. The big…

Mar 7 • Matthew C. Klein

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February 2026

Tariffs and "International Payments Problems"

It has long been accepted that tariffs are an acceptable tool for managing balance of payments issues. The real question is whether they would be useful…

Feb 28 • Matthew C. Klein

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Arbitrary U.S. Tariffs Are Gone. What's Next?

The Supreme Court has ruled that the President cannot use "emergency" authority to impose tariffs at will. Inflation is still going to be a problem.

Feb 20 • Matthew C. Klein

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Australia Is Raising Rates. Why Not the Fed?

The U.S. economy is accelerating, yet policymakers are still unreasonably concerned about downside risks.

Feb 13 • Matthew C. Klein

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Russian War Spending May be Maxed Out

The official budget deficit surged last year, as did off-balance sheet military spending via the banking system and unpaid bills. That might be tough to…

Feb 3 • Matthew C. Klein

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January 2026

Is the Market Underpricing the Risk of Fed Hikes?

The incoming data are undermining the case for lowering rates, which means that the 0% implied probability of hikes may be too low. And that is before…

Jan 20 • Matthew C. Klein

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Is Japan "Normal" Again?

After decades of trying, it looks as if inflation and nominal income growth have finally reset to a new, faster baseline. That explains the actions in…

Jan 12 • Matthew C. Klein

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December 2025

U.S. Wages Still Rising Briskly, Employment Holding Up, and Inflation Still Sticky (Probably)

Look through the noise attributable to the government shutdown, and little has changed over the past six months.

Dec 19, 2025 • Matthew C. Klein

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The Fed Submits?

America's central bankers have, in the aggregate, lowered the "appropriate" path for interest rates despite an improved growth outlook and a worsening…

Dec 12, 2025 • Matthew C. Klein

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