The Overshoot

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U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.
The January pop in the CPI was comparable to what happened last year, although some of the underlying services numbers are more encouraging. But goods…
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Matthew C. Klein
Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies
The surpluses of Edwardian Britain were not benign and should not be used to justify similar surpluses in Japan, Germany, and elsewhere.
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Matthew C. Klein
3
Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon
Prices were failing to decelerate even before there were concerns about tariffs and other disruptive policies thanks to robust income growth and…
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Matthew C. Klein

January 2025

Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position
The federal deficit is larger than in 2018-19 mostly because interest rates on existing debt are higher. What does it all mean?
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Matthew C. Klein
China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook
Underlying price pressures in 2024 were either the same or barely changed from 2023. That was despite a worsening slowdown in China that reduced demand…
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Matthew C. Klein
Conflicting Signals in the Strong Jobs Data
Core unemployment fell sharply while the monthly pace of core wage growth decelerated. Broader measures look a little different.
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Matthew C. Klein
1
There Is No "Reverse Conundrum" Driving Up Bond Yields
Market pricing so far is consistent with traders (and Fed officials) correcting bets on growth that were overly pessimistic.
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Matthew C. Klein

December 2024

November 2024

The Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee on Inflation, the Stance of Monetary Policy, the "Field Guide to R-Star", Managing Supply Shocks, and More
An exclusive interview with the president of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, who will be a voting member of the FOMC in 2025.
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Matthew C. Klein
Will Trump's Win (Eventually) Lead to *Lower* Long-Term Interest Rates?
The U.S. macro response to the pandemic preserved living standards better than in other economies. Voters responded more to the impact on inflation…
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Matthew C. Klein
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October 2024

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