The Overshoot

Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall

The latest data show that the increase in energy prices since the start of the conflict with Iran has done relatively little to improve the finances of…

May 15 • Matthew C. Klein

17

1

1

The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary

Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown…

May 14 • Matthew C. Klein

27

2

The Growth Impulse from the Data Center Boom

There is much less than meets the eye, although the official numbers may also be undercounting some of what is happening.

May 2 • Matthew C. Klein

36

3

3

April 2026

"Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot.

A wide range of underlying measures indicates that prices are rising too fast to be consistent with the Fed's alleged 2% yearly target. Plus: explaining…

Apr 17 • Matthew C. Klein

22

1

Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?

Something strange is happening with wages in healthcare and private education.

Apr 5 • Matthew C. Klein

24

1

March 2026

Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective

As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited.

Mar 27 • Matthew C. Klein

26

1

2

The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks

Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things".

Mar 19 • Matthew C. Klein

28

3

3

Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook

Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is…

Mar 13 • Matthew C. Klein

51

6

15

If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before...

Quantifying its size is impossible given how little we know about when and how this will end, but the direction of the impact is obvious. The big…

Mar 7 • Matthew C. Klein

30

13

February 2026

Tariffs and "International Payments Problems"

It has long been accepted that tariffs are an acceptable tool for managing balance of payments issues. The real question is whether they would be useful…

Feb 28 • Matthew C. Klein

20

1

13

Arbitrary U.S. Tariffs Are Gone. What's Next?

The Supreme Court has ruled that the President cannot use "emergency" authority to impose tariffs at will. Inflation is still going to be a problem.

Feb 20 • Matthew C. Klein

24

16

Australia Is Raising Rates. Why Not the Fed?

The U.S. economy is accelerating, yet policymakers are still unreasonably concerned about downside risks.

Feb 13 • Matthew C. Klein

19

1

13