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Will Trump's Win (Eventually) Lead to *Lower* Long-Term Interest Rates?
The U.S. macro response to the pandemic preserved living standards better than in other economies. Voters responded more to the impact on inflation…
Nov 8
•
Matthew C. Klein
21
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Will Trump's Win (Eventually) Lead to *Lower* Long-Term Interest Rates?
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October 2024
Christopher Waller on Wages, Productivity, and Inflation
A few lines from his most recent speech and subsequent Q&A that caught my attention.
Oct 15
•
Matthew C. Klein
24
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Christopher Waller on Wages, Productivity, and Inflation
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The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down
That is not a problem, but it has implications for inflation and interest rates. Plus: inside the September 2024 NIPA revisions.
Oct 12
•
Matthew C. Klein
18
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The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down
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September 2024
U.S. Inflation Is Still Hotter than Pre-Pandemic. And that's Okay.
Underlying measures of prices are still rising about one percentage point or so faster than they were in 2017-2019. But there is nothing wrong with this…
Sep 30
•
Matthew C. Klein
20
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U.S. Inflation Is Still Hotter than Pre-Pandemic. And that's Okay.
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The Case for Huge Fed Rate Cuts Up Front (And Maybe Some Hikes Later)
The goal should be getting to "neutral" as quickly as possible. Since no one knows where that is, optimal policy should consist of moving down quickly…
Sep 11
•
Matthew C. Klein
18
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The Case for Huge Fed Rate Cuts Up Front (And Maybe Some Hikes Later)
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August 2024
Deeper Inside the Chinese Consumer Spending Data
The shortfall in household spending since 2019 is massive no matter how you count it.
Aug 28
•
Matthew C. Klein
17
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Deeper Inside the Chinese Consumer Spending Data
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Chinese Weakness is the Real "China Shock"
It has been over a year-and-half since the end of "Covid Zero" restrictions, but domestic demand is still so weak that production is only holding up…
Aug 23
•
Matthew C. Klein
23
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Chinese Weakness is the Real "China Shock"
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The Case for Cutting Rates (or Not) is the Same As It Was Last Year
The most recent data are likely overstating the extent of disinflation, especially given what seems to be happening with goods supply and demand.
Aug 16
•
Matthew C. Klein
24
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The Case for Cutting Rates (or Not) is the Same As It Was Last Year
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The "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is an Absurd Idea
It is understandable why BTC owners would want the U.S. government to bid up the price of their assets. That does not make it good policy.
Aug 9
•
Matthew C. Klein
33
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The "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is an Absurd Idea
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The U.S. Job Market Is Better Than It Looks
There is much less to the rise in joblessness than meets the eye, while annualized wage growth is still running about 1.5 percentage points faster than…
Aug 2
•
Matthew C. Klein
30
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The U.S. Job Market Is Better Than It Looks
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July 2024
Strong, But Not Too Hot: The U.S. Economy as of Mid-2024
The latest numbers on growth, inflation, and incomes suggest that the American economy is easing into a steady state growth regime with inflation still…
Jul 29
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
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Strong, But Not Too Hot: The U.S. Economy as of Mid-2024
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How Many Benign Inflation Prints Are Enough?
We should be cautious about overemphasizing the data from May and June
Jul 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
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How Many Benign Inflation Prints Are Enough?
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