The Overshoot

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Christopher Waller on Wages, Productivity, and Inflation
A few lines from his most recent speech and subsequent Q&A that caught my attention.
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Matthew C. Klein
The U.S. Economy Is Not Slowing Down
That is not a problem, but it has implications for inflation and interest rates. Plus: inside the September 2024 NIPA revisions.
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Matthew C. Klein
1

September 2024

August 2024

Deeper Inside the Chinese Consumer Spending Data
The shortfall in household spending since 2019 is massive no matter how you count it.
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Matthew C. Klein
1
Chinese Weakness is the Real "China Shock"
It has been over a year-and-half since the end of "Covid Zero" restrictions, but domestic demand is still so weak that production is only holding up…
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Matthew C. Klein
2
The Case for Cutting Rates (or Not) is the Same As It Was Last Year
The most recent data are likely overstating the extent of disinflation, especially given what seems to be happening with goods supply and demand.
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Matthew C. Klein
1
The "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" is an Absurd Idea
It is understandable why BTC owners would want the U.S. government to bid up the price of their assets. That does not make it good policy.
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Matthew C. Klein
2
The U.S. Job Market Is Better Than It Looks
There is much less to the rise in joblessness than meets the eye, while annualized wage growth is still running about 1.5 percentage points faster than…
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Matthew C. Klein
4

July 2024

Strong, But Not Too Hot: The U.S. Economy as of Mid-2024
The latest numbers on growth, inflation, and incomes suggest that the American economy is easing into a steady state growth regime with inflation still…
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Matthew C. Klein
1
How Many Benign Inflation Prints Are Enough?
We should be cautious about overemphasizing the data from May and June
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Matthew C. Klein
1

June 2024

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