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Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics
Goods inflation was already accelerating while job churn had stopped falling. Also: watch out for upward revisions to healthcare inflation.
20 hrs ago
•
Matthew C. Klein
15
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Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics
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March 2025
The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle
By doing exactly what they were planning to do before, at least for now.
Mar 21
•
Matthew C. Klein
20
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The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle
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2
Inside the BTFP Subsidy
Banks and credit unions earned free money by borrowing from the Fed's "emergency" program and then lending it back to the Fed (or other banks) at higher…
Mar 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
18
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Inside the BTFP Subsidy
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The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
Imports of gold bars turn out to be surprisingly important. Plus: some thoughts on the February jobs numbers.
Mar 8
•
Matthew C. Klein
25
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The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
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1
The U.S. Chooses Stagflation
Policy choices over the past six weeks risk pushing a previously strong economy into a world of faster inflation and slower real growth.
Mar 6
•
Matthew C. Klein
42
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The U.S. Chooses Stagflation
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The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now
An accounting gimmick that is appropriate for the seriousness and stupidity of the times.
Mar 4
•
Matthew C. Klein
44
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The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now
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3
February 2025
Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them
The Putin regime's eagerness for a quick deal is itself indicative of the country's tenuous position.
Feb 25
•
Matthew C. Klein
31
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Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them
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1
U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.
The January pop in the CPI was comparable to what happened last year, although some of the underlying services numbers are more encouraging. But goods…
Feb 15
•
Matthew C. Klein
23
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U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.
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Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies
The surpluses of Edwardian Britain were not benign and should not be used to justify similar surpluses in Japan, Germany, and elsewhere.
Feb 12
•
Matthew C. Klein
91
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Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies
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3
Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon
Prices were failing to decelerate even before there were concerns about tariffs and other disruptive policies thanks to robust income growth and…
Feb 8
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
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Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon
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January 2025
Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position
The federal deficit is larger than in 2018-19 mostly because interest rates on existing debt are higher. What does it all mean?
Jan 30
•
Matthew C. Klein
37
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Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position
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China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook
Underlying price pressures in 2024 were either the same or barely changed from 2023. That was despite a worsening slowdown in China that reduced demand…
Jan 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
27
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China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook
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