The Overshoot

The Overshoot

Home
Archive
About
The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Even if the underlying technology turned out to be mostly useless, the spending occurring right now is massive. And it may not be fully captured in the…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
5
Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
Even if we try to "look through" the impact of tariffs, which could be unwise, the inflationary trend remains persistently faster than before the…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
The Job Market Is Strong, Inflation Is Too Fast, and the Government Is Bananas
The current U.S. administration is determined to squander the benign conditions it inherited. Federal Reserve officials were wise to avoid adjusting…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
2

July 2025

The U.S. Is Not "Winning the Trade War"
Unilaterally raising costs for Americans can harm people in the rest of the world, but not much more than any other policy that reduces the purchasing…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
4
The IMF's Unreasonable External Balance Benchmarks
Methodological flaws encourage persistent imbalances and discourage some reasonable responses by governments to protect their citizens.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
Inflation, Trump, and the Fed
There is no sane reason for the Fed to cut much, if at all. But the wannabe Erdogan (with a pinch of Nixon) has different ideas.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
3
How Türkiye Pulled It Off (-ish)
Policy tightening helped reduce inflation, stabilize the currency, and improve the country's fragile financial position. But Turks are still worse off…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein

June 2025

U.S. Inflation Still Robust Even Before Tariff Impact
The risks are skewed in one direction: up.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
The U.S. Economy Does Not Need Lower Interest Rates (Yet)
The latest data available on the job market, inflation, and business sentiment all suggest that the current constellation of interest rates is broadly…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
How Credible Is the 2025Q1 GDP Decline?
Inventory accumulation is almost certainly being undercounted. Data center investment may also be undercounted. But there was still a substantial…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein

May 2025

© 2025 Matthew C. Klein
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture