The Overshoot

Home
Archive
About
New
Top
Discussion
Managing Economic and Financial Entanglements With China
How to offset the impact of China's internal imbalances on employment, industrial capacity, and financial stability. Plus: how to maintain mutual…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
The Threat from China's Capital Flight
Perhaps as much as $500 billion a year is likely leaving the country in ways that are not showing up in the official financial accounts. That is putting…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
6
U.S. Wage Growth Is Slowing, Somewhat
By some measures, nominal pay raises are now in line with 2006-2007 or the late 1990s. What that means for inflation and interest rates is less clear.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
Is the Fed Peaking Too Soon?
The risk is that nominal spending will continue to rise faster than officials prefer.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
3
October 2023
The U.S. Economy Is Booming (For Now). What Does It Mean?
Every measure of activity indicates remarkable resilience in the face of "restrictive" monetary policy. That is good for many people, but may be trouble…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
11
New Episode of UN/BALANCED!
Michael Pettis and I talk about China's emergence as a major car exporter, what it says about China, and what it means for Europe. Plus: how and when…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
Tracking Russia's Financial Outflows, Again
The current account surplus has shrunk thanks to higher imports (bad) and lower oil and gas revenues (good). Data from Russian and other sources suggest…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
1
The Russia Sanctions Need a Reset
The oil price cap is reducing federal budget revenues but is not having an impact on government spending or Russia's ability to import goods from the…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
Are Bond Yields Too High, or Too Low?
Wage growth seems to be slowing even as employment continues to rise briskly, which is good news for inflation and growth. But the implications for…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
3
"Excess" Savings Are Higher Now (Sort Of): More Highlights from the 2023 Comprehensive NIPA Revisions
How changes in pre-pandemic estimates of asset income affect the aggregate numbers. Plus, a look at the August PCE inflation numbers.
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
September 2023
Less Tax Evasion, a Profit Boom, and a Persistent Interest Puzzle: Highlights of the 2023 Comprehensive NIPA Revisions (Part 1)
The quinquennial update of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts has lots of new information. But many questions about the state of the economy…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
The Fed's Bullishness Is Pushing Up Rates
The latest projections suggest that the economy has more underlying momentum than previously believed *and* that there is less need to crush the job…
 • 
Matthew C. Klein
3
© 2023 Matthew C. Klein
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great writing