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Chinese "Overcapacity" Is Not the Problem. Underconsumption Is.
We are far from overcoming humanity's material needs, which means we need more production. The problem is not "excess" investment in capacity, but…
Apr 22
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Matthew C. Klein
51
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Chinese "Overcapacity" Is Not the Problem. Underconsumption Is.
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Inflation Is Not "Reaccelerating", But It Isn't Obviously Heading Back to 2%, Either
After a period of temporarily slower price increases, inflation in the first few months of 2024 seems more consistent with the rest of the economic…
Apr 16
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Matthew C. Klein
15
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Inflation Is Not "Reaccelerating", But It Isn't Obviously Heading Back to 2%, Either
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Why Have Rate Hikes Not Done Anything?
Houseolds and businesses have responded to higher interest rates by issuing less debt, yet the shift from borrowing to saving has not affected real…
Apr 8
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Matthew C. Klein
27
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Why Have Rate Hikes Not Done Anything?
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March 2024
The Fed's Growth Optimism Puts a Floor Under Rates
Officials are more bullish on America's growth prospects, which helps explain why they are somewhat less inclined to lower rates despite more confidence…
Mar 21
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Matthew C. Klein
16
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The Fed's Growth Optimism Puts a Floor Under Rates
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Parsing the 2024 Inflation Rebound
Look past the volatility in the monthly data on wages and prices in January and February, and prior trends seem to be holding. The good news is that…
Mar 14
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Matthew C. Klein
18
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Parsing the 2024 Inflation Rebound
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Türkiye's Incredible Balancing Act
The country of nearly 90 million has managed to keep growing rapidly despite an increasingly fragile financial structure. Can it continue?
Mar 7
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Matthew C. Klein
19
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Türkiye's Incredible Balancing Act
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Inflation Is Still Hot, But Could Incomes Be Slowing?
There is not much reason to be comforted by the latest numbers on prices, but income growth may be slowing.
Mar 1
•
Matthew C. Klein
17
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Inflation Is Still Hot, But Could Incomes Be Slowing?
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February 2024
U.S. Inflation Surged in January. Is It a Fluke?
Prices jumped in many categories in the first month of the year. Some of that may be noise, and should be discounted accordingly, but it is difficult to…
Feb 15
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Matthew C. Klein
19
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U.S. Inflation Surged in January. Is It a Fluke?
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China's Smaller Banks Are Getting Squeezed
PBOC lending to other depository corporations is up by 50% since mid-2022. That coincides with deposit migration away from small and medium sized banks…
Feb 7
•
Matthew C. Klein
13
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China's Smaller Banks Are Getting Squeezed
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Wages Are Rising Faster than We Thought
The good news is that the personal savings rate is likely higher than previously estimated. But the underlying nominal growth impulse is stronger…
Feb 3
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Matthew C. Klein
15
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Wages Are Rising Faster than We Thought
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January 2024
Can the EU Squeeze Hungary?
Hungary has a massive structural current account surplus, but the banking system has recently developed a currency mismatch that might be possible to…
Jan 31
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Matthew C. Klein
13
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Can the EU Squeeze Hungary?
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The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?
Real growth is running faster than 3%, nominal income growth is still 6-7%, and several drags are poised to reverse soon. Even with inflation…
Jan 27
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Matthew C. Klein
24
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The U.S. Economy is Roaring. Why Should Rates Come Down?
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