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Is the Market Underpricing the Risk of Fed Hikes?
The incoming data are undermining the case for lowering rates, which means that the 0% implied probability of hikes may be too low. And that is before…
12 hrs ago
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Matthew C. Klein
10
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Is Japan "Normal" Again?
After decades of trying, it looks as if inflation and nominal income growth have finally reset to a new, faster baseline. That explains the actions in…
Jan 12
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Matthew C. Klein
23
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4
U.S. Wages Still Rising Briskly, Employment Holding Up, and Inflation Still Sticky (Probably)
Look through the noise attributable to the government shutdown, and little has changed over the past six months.
Dec 19, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
12
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How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
157
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25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
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Matthew C. Klein
33
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Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
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Matthew C. Klein
52
10
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The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
47
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Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
Aug 14, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
38
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The U.S. Economy Refuses to Slow Down
Jan 18, 2024
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Matthew C. Klein
78
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Discussions
The Fed Submits?
America's central bankers have, in the aggregate, lowered the "appropriate" path for interest rates despite an improved growth outlook and a worsening…
Dec 12, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
17
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2
Waking the Sleeping European Giant
Coordination and mobilization of existing resources would transform the continent into a superpower. The ongoing failure to do so is largely the fault…
Dec 3, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
33
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The "Sell America Trade", QT, and Foreign Banks
"Foreign-related institutions" have shed ~$400 billion in dollar deposits at the Fed since July while reducing their overall U.S. exposure. That has…
Nov 18, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
23
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Inside America's Consumption Recovery
High earners monetizing asset price gains are always important, but they are far from single-handedly keeping America out of a downturn.
Oct 30, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
25
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The Latest Argentina Bailout will (Probably) Fail
The U.S. Treasury's interventions on behalf of Argentina are unlikely to succeed as long as the country's fiscal probity fails to offset monetary laxity…
Oct 20, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
19
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Guest Post: Dear IMF, It's Not *Only* Fiscal
IMF veteran Christopher Marsh explains how the balance of payments, the domestic financial system, and the fiscal accounts should be linked together…
Oct 10, 2025
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Chris Marsh
16
What Should the U.S. Try to Achieve in Argentina?
Discouraging underconsumption abroad is normally a good use of American financial resources. But still.
Oct 8, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
26
China's "Anti-Involution" Campaign: Global Implications
Slashing excessive investment seems to be easier than ramping up domestic consumption. Net exports, supported by FX management, seem to be making up the…
Sep 19, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
31
3
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Inflation is Persistent and Consumers are Flush. Falling Rates Could be Dangerous.
Current income is already rising fast enough to finance broad price increases, with borrowing muted thanks to high rates. Lower rates could lead to…
Sep 14, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
27
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