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Found: America’s Missing Interest Income
For years I have argued that the official numbers on net interest payments by U.S. businesses were grossly understated. The latest revisions have…
Oct 9
•
Matthew C. Klein
23
2
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less…
Oct 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
54
1
9
The Fed Finally Gets It
Tariffs, Hormuz, and fiscal policy are not good reasons to hike. The underlying growth trend and the asymmetric sensitivity of private sector spending…
Sep 24
•
Matthew C. Klein
46
2
7
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How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
166
3
25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
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Matthew C. Klein
57
2
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
Sep 1
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Matthew C. Klein
79
3
10
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
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Matthew C. Klein
52
9
1
Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Mar 13
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Matthew C. Klein
55
6
15
The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
52
6
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Just Waiting for Disinflation is Not Enough
The Fed staff has been assuming that inflation would eventually return to 2% without anyone having to do anything, and this has infected the thinking of…
Sep 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
35
4
4
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
The simplest explanation is also the most benign: traders are becoming increasingly confident that the lost decades are over.
Sep 1
•
Matthew C. Klein
79
3
10
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
If new technologies are actually able to boost productivity growth over a sustained period, the 1990s experience suggests that real interest rates are…
Aug 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
36
5
5
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Even if AI is disinflationary, the cost of capital might need to rise to balance out the higher prospective returns on new investments. But first: is…
Aug 5
•
Matthew C. Klein
52
1
1
U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
Freakish declines in motor vehicle insurance, phone bills, and jewelry are probably not indicative of any change in underlying trends. Plus: more on how…
Jul 20
•
Matthew C. Klein
57
5
The Win-Win Solution to "China Shock 2.0"
The best way to address the concerns of China's trade partners is to let the Chinese people live better.
Jun 23
•
Matthew C. Klein
38
5
2
The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
Hormuz may be opening up, but the combination of robust growth and stable-to-accelerating underlying inflation suggests that the previous bias to…
Jun 17
•
Matthew C. Klein
39
1
Yes, Living Standards Have Grown Slower in Northwest Europe than in the U.S.
But what that means for relative income levels is much less clear.
Jun 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
62
1
4
Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall
The latest data show that the increase in energy prices since the start of the conflict with Iran has done relatively little to improve the finances of…
May 15
•
Matthew C. Klein
28
3
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