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"Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot.
A wide range of underlying measures indicates that prices are rising too fast to be consistent with the Fed's alleged 2% yearly target. Plus: explaining…
13 hrs ago
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Matthew C. Klein
12
Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
Something strange is happening with wages in healthcare and private education.
Apr 5
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Matthew C. Klein
23
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Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective
As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited.
Mar 27
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Matthew C. Klein
23
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How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
156
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25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
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Matthew C. Klein
34
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Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
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Matthew C. Klein
52
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Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Mar 13
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Matthew C. Klein
50
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15
The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
47
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Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
Aug 14, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
38
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The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks
Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things".
Mar 19
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Matthew C. Klein
26
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Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is…
Mar 13
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Matthew C. Klein
50
6
15
If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before...
Quantifying its size is impossible given how little we know about when and how this will end, but the direction of the impact is obvious. The big…
Mar 7
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Matthew C. Klein
31
13
Tariffs and "International Payments Problems"
It has long been accepted that tariffs are an acceptable tool for managing balance of payments issues. The real question is whether they would be useful…
Feb 28
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Matthew C. Klein
20
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Arbitrary U.S. Tariffs Are Gone. What's Next?
The Supreme Court has ruled that the President cannot use "emergency" authority to impose tariffs at will. Inflation is still going to be a problem.
Feb 20
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Matthew C. Klein
24
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Australia Is Raising Rates. Why Not the Fed?
The U.S. economy is accelerating, yet policymakers are still unreasonably concerned about downside risks.
Feb 13
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Matthew C. Klein
18
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Russian War Spending May be Maxed Out
The official budget deficit surged last year, as did off-balance sheet military spending via the banking system and unpaid bills. That might be tough to…
Feb 3
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Matthew C. Klein
27
4
15
Is the Market Underpricing the Risk of Fed Hikes?
The incoming data are undermining the case for lowering rates, which means that the 0% implied probability of hikes may be too low. And that is before…
Jan 20
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Matthew C. Klein
20
3
13
Is Japan "Normal" Again?
After decades of trying, it looks as if inflation and nominal income growth have finally reset to a new, faster baseline. That explains the actions in…
Jan 12
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Matthew C. Klein
31
4
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