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AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Even if AI is disinflationary, the cost of capital might need to rise to balance out the higher prospective returns on new investments. But first: is…
Aug 5
•
Matthew C. Klein
31
1
1
U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
Freakish declines in motor vehicle insurance, phone bills, and jewelry are probably not indicative of any change in underlying trends. Plus: more on how…
Jul 20
•
Matthew C. Klein
50
5
The Win-Win Solution to "China Shock 2.0"
The best way to address the concerns of China's trade partners is to let the Chinese people live better.
Jun 23
•
Matthew C. Klein
29
5
2
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How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
•
Matthew C. Klein
159
3
25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
•
Matthew C. Klein
34
2
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
•
Matthew C. Klein
52
9
1
Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Mar 13
•
Matthew C. Klein
55
6
15
The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
•
Matthew C. Klein
52
6
8
Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
Aug 14, 2025
•
Matthew C. Klein
38
1
4
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The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
Hormuz may be opening up, but the combination of robust growth and stable-to-accelerating underlying inflation suggests that the previous bias to…
Jun 17
•
Matthew C. Klein
33
1
Yes, Living Standards Have Grown Slower in Northwest Europe than in the U.S.
But what that means for relative income levels is much less clear.
Jun 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
50
1
4
Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall
The latest data show that the increase in energy prices since the start of the conflict with Iran has done relatively little to improve the finances of…
May 15
•
Matthew C. Klein
27
3
1
The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary
Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown…
May 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
34
1
2
The Growth Impulse from the Data Center Boom
There is much less than meets the eye, although the official numbers may also be undercounting some of what is happening.
May 2
•
Matthew C. Klein
47
3
4
"Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot.
A wide range of underlying measures indicates that prices are rising too fast to be consistent with the Fed's alleged 2% yearly target. Plus: explaining…
Apr 17
•
Matthew C. Klein
24
1
Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
Something strange is happening with wages in healthcare and private education.
Apr 5
•
Matthew C. Klein
25
1
Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective
As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited.
Mar 27
•
Matthew C. Klein
26
1
2
The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks
Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things".
Mar 19
•
Matthew C. Klein
32
3
3
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