The Overshoot
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Archive
About
The Changing Shape of the U.S. AI Capex Boom
The labs are becoming hyperscalers, imports are continuing to surge, and investment further up the supply chain is rising in response to the tight…
Nov 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
49
2
U.S. Inflation Not Getting (Much) Worse, or Better, but Consumers are Fine
Things are not quite as bad as some headlines imply, although also not great. Plus: inside the retail sales and inventory revisions!
Oct 22
•
Matthew C. Klein
28
Found: America’s Missing Interest Income
For years I have argued that the official numbers on net interest payments by U.S. businesses were grossly understated. The latest revisions have…
Oct 9
•
Matthew C. Klein
34
3
Most Popular
View all
How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
•
Matthew C. Klein
165
3
25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
•
Matthew C. Klein
57
2
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
Sep 1
•
Matthew C. Klein
81
3
10
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
•
Matthew C. Klein
52
9
1
Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Mar 13
•
Matthew C. Klein
55
6
15
The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
•
Matthew C. Klein
52
6
8
Latest
Top
Discussions
France is the Biggest Loser in the Global Rates Reset
In much of the rich world, the uptick in the cost of capital corresponds to a relatively benign change in (nominal) growth trajectories. This is less…
Oct 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
63
1
10
The Fed Finally Gets It
Tariffs, Hormuz, and fiscal policy are not good reasons to hike. The underlying growth trend and the asymmetric sensitivity of private sector spending…
Sep 24
•
Matthew C. Klein
49
1
7
Just Waiting for Disinflation is Not Enough
The Fed staff has been assuming that inflation would eventually return to 2% without anyone having to do anything, and this has infected the thinking of…
Sep 14
•
Matthew C. Klein
37
4
4
Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
The simplest explanation is also the most benign: traders are becoming increasingly confident that the lost decades are over.
Sep 1
•
Matthew C. Klein
81
3
10
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
If new technologies are actually able to boost productivity growth over a sustained period, the 1990s experience suggests that real interest rates are…
Aug 18
•
Matthew C. Klein
39
5
5
AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Even if AI is disinflationary, the cost of capital might need to rise to balance out the higher prospective returns on new investments. But first: is…
Aug 5
•
Matthew C. Klein
55
1
1
U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
Freakish declines in motor vehicle insurance, phone bills, and jewelry are probably not indicative of any change in underlying trends. Plus: more on how…
Jul 20
•
Matthew C. Klein
57
5
The Win-Win Solution to "China Shock 2.0"
The best way to address the concerns of China's trade partners is to let the Chinese people live better.
Jun 23
•
Matthew C. Klein
40
5
6
The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
Hormuz may be opening up, but the combination of robust growth and stable-to-accelerating underlying inflation suggests that the previous bias to…
Jun 17
•
Matthew C. Klein
39
1
See all
The Overshoot
Making sense of the global economy and financial markets
Subscribe
Recommendations
View all 30
Net Interest
Marc Rubinstein
Continuous Variation
Alex Williams
Age of Invention, by Anton Howes
Anton Howes
Pekingnology
Zichen Wang
Apricitas Economics
Joseph Politano
The Overshoot
Subscribe
About
Archive
Recommendations
Sitemap
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts
