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The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary
Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown…
May 14
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Matthew C. Klein
23
2
The Growth Impulse from the Data Center Boom
There is much less than meets the eye, although the official numbers may also be undercounting some of what is happening.
May 2
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Matthew C. Klein
36
3
3
"Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot.
A wide range of underlying measures indicates that prices are rising too fast to be consistent with the Fed's alleged 2% yearly target. Plus: explaining…
Apr 17
•
Matthew C. Klein
21
1
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How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
156
3
25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
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Matthew C. Klein
34
2
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
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Matthew C. Klein
52
10
1
Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Mar 13
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Matthew C. Klein
51
6
15
The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
48
6
8
Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
Aug 14, 2025
•
Matthew C. Klein
38
1
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Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
Something strange is happening with wages in healthcare and private education.
Apr 5
•
Matthew C. Klein
24
1
Russia's Iran War Windfall in Perspective
As long as financial sanctions and export controls remain in place, the aggressor's gains from higher oil and gas prices will be limited.
Mar 27
•
Matthew C. Klein
26
1
2
The Fed is Misreading the Inflation Risks
Inflation was getting worse *before the war* across a broad range of categories. Yet Fed officials are still blaming "one-time things".
Mar 19
•
Matthew C. Klein
28
3
2
Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Prior oil shocks in 1973 and 1979 involved far larger price increases than what we have seen so far. Yet this shock involves a hit to volumes that is…
Mar 13
•
Matthew C. Klein
51
6
15
If You Thought the Inflation Outlook Was Bad Before...
Quantifying its size is impossible given how little we know about when and how this will end, but the direction of the impact is obvious. The big…
Mar 7
•
Matthew C. Klein
30
13
Tariffs and "International Payments Problems"
It has long been accepted that tariffs are an acceptable tool for managing balance of payments issues. The real question is whether they would be useful…
Feb 28
•
Matthew C. Klein
20
1
13
Arbitrary U.S. Tariffs Are Gone. What's Next?
The Supreme Court has ruled that the President cannot use "emergency" authority to impose tariffs at will. Inflation is still going to be a problem.
Feb 20
•
Matthew C. Klein
24
16
Australia Is Raising Rates. Why Not the Fed?
The U.S. economy is accelerating, yet policymakers are still unreasonably concerned about downside risks.
Feb 13
•
Matthew C. Klein
19
1
13
Russian War Spending May be Maxed Out
The official budget deficit surged last year, as did off-balance sheet military spending via the banking system and unpaid bills. That might be tough to…
Feb 3
•
Matthew C. Klein
27
4
15
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