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Rising Bond Yields Are Good, Actually
The simplest explanation is also the most benign: traders are becoming increasingly confident that the lost decades are over.
Sep 1
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Matthew C. Klein
73
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AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part 2
If new technologies are actually able to boost productivity growth over a sustained period, the 1990s experience suggests that real interest rates are…
Aug 18
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Matthew C. Klein
31
5
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AI, Productivity, and Rates: Part I
Even if AI is disinflationary, the cost of capital might need to rise to balance out the higher prospective returns on new investments. But first: is…
Aug 5
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Matthew C. Klein
40
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How to Think About the Tariffs
Apr 4, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
165
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25
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Aug 31, 2021
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Matthew C. Klein
53
2
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Mar 13, 2023
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Matthew C. Klein
52
9
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Markets Are Still Sanguine About the Oil Outlook
Mar 13
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Matthew C. Klein
55
6
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The Macro Impact of AI on GDP
Aug 21, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
52
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Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
Aug 14, 2025
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Matthew C. Klein
38
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U.S. Inflation Is Not Really Slowing
Freakish declines in motor vehicle insurance, phone bills, and jewelry are probably not indicative of any change in underlying trends. Plus: more on how…
Jul 20
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Matthew C. Klein
56
5
The Win-Win Solution to "China Shock 2.0"
The best way to address the concerns of China's trade partners is to let the Chinese people live better.
Jun 23
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Matthew C. Klein
36
5
2
The Case for Higher U.S. Rates
Hormuz may be opening up, but the combination of robust growth and stable-to-accelerating underlying inflation suggests that the previous bias to…
Jun 17
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Matthew C. Klein
37
1
Yes, Living Standards Have Grown Slower in Northwest Europe than in the U.S.
But what that means for relative income levels is much less clear.
Jun 3
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Matthew C. Klein
57
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Russia's Underwhelming Oil Revenue Windfall
The latest data show that the increase in energy prices since the start of the conflict with Iran has done relatively little to improve the finances of…
May 15
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Matthew C. Klein
28
3
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The U.S. Job Market is (Still) Inflationary
Wage growth is now accelerating slightly, supporting the quickening of "supercore" service price increases. Plus: more on the health care wage slowdown…
May 14
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Matthew C. Klein
34
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The Growth Impulse from the Data Center Boom
There is much less than meets the eye, although the official numbers may also be undercounting some of what is happening.
May 2
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Matthew C. Klein
53
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"Look Through" the Hormuz Shock if You Want. U.S. Inflation is Still Running Hot.
A wide range of underlying measures indicates that prices are rising too fast to be consistent with the Fed's alleged 2% yearly target. Plus: explaining…
Apr 17
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Matthew C. Klein
24
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Is U.S. Wage Growth Slowing Or Not?
Something strange is happening with wages in healthcare and private education.
Apr 5
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Matthew C. Klein
25
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