The Overshoot

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Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.
Matthew C. Klein
2
Financing risk-taking with deposits is an inherently fragile business model that depends on persistent government support. There are alternatives.
Matthew C. Klein
9
The latest wave of U.S. economic data suggest that growth remains strong even as excessive inflation persists. The interest rates that made sense in the…
Matthew C. Klein
The latest data on wages suggest that declining job market churn has not been sufficient to normalize the pace nominal income growth.
Matthew C. Klein
4
The highest-income households pocketed a windfall earlier in the pandemic that they have since used to cover capital gains tax payments, weak asset…
Matthew C. Klein
2
Temporary forces that pushed annualized inflation into the double-digits are going into reverse. The remainder is being determined (mostly) by the pace…
Matthew C. Klein
3
The inflation and income data are not yet in a place where officials are comfortable.
Matthew C. Klein
2
Trying to figure out why one reflation was also a growth miracle, while the other one was not.
Matthew C. Klein
7
The discrepancy between Chinese goods exports according to customs data and according to the balance of payments remains extremely large.
Matthew C. Klein
1
Consumer spending power and underlying price pressures are not yet ticking lower. That is worsening the perceived tradeoff between growth and inflation.
Matthew C. Klein
2
Consumer goods prices continue to fall, but more importantly, there was encouraging progress on stubborn services prices as well as underlying wage…
Matthew C. Klein
2
Employment is rising as workers rejoin the labor force, while pay growth now looks to be slowing thanks to revisions. But other indicators suggest that…
Matthew C. Klein
5
© 2023 Matthew C. Klein
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