The Overshoot

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Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.
Matthew C. Klein
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Temporary forces that pushed annualized inflation into the double-digits are going into reverse. The remainder is being determined (mostly) by the pace…
Matthew C. Klein
28
3
Japan's unique balance of payments and inflation dynamics allow the Ministry of Finance to focus on supporting the currency even as the Bank of Japan…
Matthew C. Klein
24
The details of the data continue to be confusing and contradictory. But the economy is almost certainly slowing even if it hasn't yet started shrinking.
Matthew C. Klein
18
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The BEA has updated its estimates of everything from private sector wages to spending at restaurants and dividend payouts.
Matthew C. Klein
29
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The latest data on wages suggest that declining job market churn has not been sufficient to normalize the pace nominal income growth.
Matthew C. Klein
19
4
Squeezed consumers and homebuilders are forcing up the trade surplus via stagnant imports. And higher lending to local governments likely reflects…
Matthew C. Klein
21
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Interpreting the mixed signals across the economy, with a focus on inflation, jobs, and market pricing.
Matthew C. Klein
26
The latest numbers from the major manufacturing powers suggest that exports to Russia are rising.
Matthew C. Klein
13
3
Federal Reserve officials want to reduce businesses' demand for workers to put downward pressure on wage growth and contain inflation. Yet the pace of…
Matthew C. Klein
13
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Either corporate profits are being grossly overstated, the trade deficit is much narrower than implied by customs data, or business investment is being…
Matthew C. Klein
14
3
Goods prices are falling and input costs have mostly stopped rising. Wage gains associated with labor market churn have slowed, although not enough…
Matthew C. Klein
17
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