The Overshoot

The Overshoot

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How to Think About the Tariffs
This is bad policy, executed thoughtlessly. But it is worth thinking through exactly *why* it is bad.
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Matthew C. Klein
3
Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.
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Matthew C. Klein
2
Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Financing risk-taking with deposits is an inherently fragile business model that depends on persistent government support. There are alternatives.
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Matthew C. Klein
10
The U.S. Economy Refuses to Slow Down
The good news for workers and businesses is that hiring and sales are still rising briskly. The potential wrinkle is that underlying inflation still…
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Matthew C. Klein
1
The U.S. Chooses Stagflation
Policy choices over the past six weeks risk pushing a previously strong economy into a world of faster inflation and slower real growth.
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Matthew C. Klein
Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks
The limits of U.S.-China decoupling, the principled case for an American industrial renaissance, and the scope for (desirability of?) capital flight…
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Matthew C. Klein
2
America's Housing Rebound
Despite years of the highest real mortgage interest rates in almost two decades, construction and renovation spending have been holding steady, if not…
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Matthew C. Klein
This is What Normalization Looks Like (Mostly)
Long-end interest rates are rising after a prolonged period of being unusually low relative to short-end rates. Even the moves in Japan look less scary…
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Matthew C. Klein
7
China's Edge in the "Trade Struggle" is More Theoretical than Real
It *should* be easier to replace lost demand than lost supply, but there are good reasons to wonder whether it is actually possible for the party-state…
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Matthew C. Klein
5
The U.S. Job Market Is Better Than It Looks
There is much less to the rise in joblessness than meets the eye, while annualized wage growth is still running about 1.5 percentage points faster than…
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Matthew C. Klein
4
Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies
The surpluses of Edwardian Britain were not benign and should not be used to justify similar surpluses in Japan, Germany, and elsewhere.
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Matthew C. Klein
3
The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
Imports of gold bars turn out to be surprisingly important. Plus: some thoughts on the February jobs numbers.
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Matthew C. Klein
1
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