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Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.
Matthew C. Klein
Aug 31, 2021
29
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Inequality, Interest Rates, Aging, and the Role of Central Banks
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Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
Financing risk-taking with deposits is an inherently fragile business model that depends on persistent government support. There are alternatives.
Matthew C. Klein
Mar 13
45
9
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Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts
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"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"
The latest wave of U.S. economic data suggest that growth remains strong even as excessive inflation persists. The interest rates that made sense in the…
Matthew C. Klein
Feb 18
24
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"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"
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Immaculate Disinflation Hopes Dashed?
The latest data on wages suggest that declining job market churn has not been sufficient to normalize the pace nominal income growth.
Matthew C. Klein
Dec 3, 2022
22
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Immaculate Disinflation Hopes Dashed?
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America's "Excess" Household Savings Are Going Away
The highest-income households pocketed a windfall earlier in the pandemic that they have since used to cover capital gains tax payments, weak asset…
Matthew C. Klein
Jan 31
25
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America's "Excess" Household Savings Are Going Away
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Wages, Prices, and Taming U.S. Inflation
Temporary forces that pushed annualized inflation into the double-digits are going into reverse. The remainder is being determined (mostly) by the pace…
Matthew C. Klein
Oct 19, 2022
28
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Wages, Prices, and Taming U.S. Inflation
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Why the Fed Is Still Raising Rates
The inflation and income data are not yet in a place where officials are comfortable.
Matthew C. Klein
Feb 3
23
2
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Why the Fed Is Still Raising Rates
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Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy
Trying to figure out why one reflation was also a growth miracle, while the other one was not.
Matthew C. Klein
Mar 8
27
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Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy
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The Mysterious $300 Billion Flow Out of China
The discrepancy between Chinese goods exports according to customs data and according to the balance of payments remains extremely large.
Matthew C. Klein
Feb 10
19
1
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The Mysterious $300 Billion Flow Out of China
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The Fed Is Getting Less Sanguine About Inflation. Here's Why.
Consumer spending power and underlying price pressures are not yet ticking lower. That is worsening the perceived tradeoff between growth and inflation.
Matthew C. Klein
Dec 17, 2022
27
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The Fed Is Getting Less Sanguine About Inflation. Here's Why.
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Great News on Inflation! Will It Last?
Consumer goods prices continue to fall, but more importantly, there was encouraging progress on stubborn services prices as well as underlying wage…
Matthew C. Klein
Jan 13
29
2
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Great News on Inflation! Will It Last?
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Is the U.S. Job Market Disinflationary Now?
Employment is rising as workers rejoin the labor force, while pay growth now looks to be slowing thanks to revisions. But other indicators suggest that…
Matthew C. Klein
Jan 7
29
5
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Is the U.S. Job Market Disinflationary Now?
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