The Overshoot

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Bad things lead to more bad things. But (some) bad things can be fixed.
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Putin unwittingly pushed us into a new world. How will it change behavior?
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It has been eight years since Russia last invaded Ukraine. What has changed, and what has not?
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The immediate goal is to prevent the Russian army from resupplying its forces. Look for a sharp drop in exports to Russia from the major manufacturing…
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Production and consumption both cratered in April. The impact on the rest of the world is uncertain.
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Comprehensive data from March show that the Russian economy is being denied access to critical manufactured goods. The initial numbers for April suggest…
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A comprehensive decomposition of the changes in consumer prices since the pandemic began suggests that supply constraints in a handful of sectors are…
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Domestically-generated U.S. inflation was slowing down in March. But the good news was offset by Russia-related shortages of energy and food. Lockdowns…
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Many price increases, particularly for manufactured goods, seem to be moderating or reversing. But persistent inflation in the prices of select…
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Time for something different
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Getting into the guts of net exports, the statistical discrepancy, and more.
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The death and disruption were bound to create real economic losses, even if things are better now than what one might have feared in the spring of 2020…
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© 2022 Matthew C. Klein
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