Sitemap - 2022 - The Overshoot

The Overshoot's 2022 Year in Review

The Bank of Japan Makes a Tweak

The Fed Is Getting Less Sanguine About Inflation. Here's Why.

U.S. Inflation Reprieve?

The "Tech Wreck" and Ireland

Russian Imports Seem to Have Stabilized

Immaculate Disinflation Hopes Dashed?

"Slouching Towards Utopia" and "The Long 20th Century"

Trade Wars Are Class Wars, 34 Months Later (Part 2)

Patience on Inflation Is Paying Off. Sort of.

Russia Sanctions, "Mobilization", and Capital Flight

The Japanese Government Is Right to Defend the Yen (Part 2)

The Japanese Government Is Right to Defend the Yen (Part 1)

Wages, Prices, and Taming U.S. Inflation

Some Chinese Balance of Payments Puzzles

Looking at Japan with FT Unhedged

The Covid Recovery Looks Different Now

The Fed Tries to Get Out in Front

The "Data-Dependent" Fed and the Data

Russia's Imports Are Surging. Does It Matter?

Trade Wars Are Class Wars, 32 Months Later (Part 1)

Solving One Puzzle in U.S. GDP Data (Maybe), Finding More

A Few Puzzling Charts

The Sanctions' Impact on Russia

The Squeeze on Russia Is Loosening

U.S. Inflation May Be Turning the Corner

Is America's Job Market "Too Good"?

Price Discovery in Subscription Research

Is the 2022H1 GDP Decline...Fake?

China's Unbalancing Is Going Into Overdrive

Inflation Isn't Getting Better. Yet.

"Quantitative Tightening" So Far

Most Americans Are Doing Well. For Now.

Russia Sanctions Update: April (comprehensive) and May (preliminary)

What Should We Do About Inflation? (Part 2)

The Federal Reserve Brings the Pain

What Should We Do About Inflation? (Part 1)

U.S. Inflation in May: More Mixed News

On the Russian Oil Sanctions

U.S. Economic Data Aren't Adding Up

What's Happening With the Global Economy? (with Cardiff Garcia)

"Covid Zero" is Crushing China

Russia Is Losing Access to Imports

U.S. Inflation is Getting Worse (and Better?)

Thoughts on DISORDER by Helen Thompson

How Worrying is the Q1 GDP Decline?

Russia Sanctions Update: Germany, Japan, Switzerland, Thailand, and Malaysia

Korean Exports to Russia Have Collapsed

The Sanctions Are Already Working

Covid-flation Meets Putin-flation

Last Looks at the Pre-War World (4): U.S. Incomes Were Outpacing Inflation

Last Looks at the Pre-War World (3): The Return of "Exorbitant Privilege"?

Last Looks at the Pre-War World (2): China Bounces Off the Lows?

How to Dominate the Economic Battlefield with a "Freedom Fund"

Last Looks at the Pre-War World (1): America's Boom

The Fed Is Still Waiting for Supply

Russia's Attack on the World's Food Supply

The Implications of Unrestricted Financial Warfare

Mapping Banks' Russian and Ukrainian Exposures

Russia Was Already Cutting Off Europe's Gas Before Invading Ukraine. What Can Be Done?

Russia Was Prepared to Withstand Sanctions. Why Wasn't Europe Prepared to Impose Them?

How Should the Federal Reserve Tighten?

Is U.S. Inflation Getting Worse?

What the New "New Vehicles" Price Index Tells Us

The Jobs Recovery Looks Different Now

The U.S. Job Market Is Hot*

Rebalancing (Mostly) Got Back on Track in 2021Q4

U.S "Excess" Household Savings and the Balance of Payments

Understanding Covid-flation

Where Have the "Excess" Savings Gone?

Are America's "Excess" Savings Here to Stay?