Sitemap - 2025 - The Overshoot
China's Edge in the "Trade Struggle" is More Theoretical than Real
Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks
How to Think About the Tariffs
Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics
The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle
The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now
Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them
U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.
Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies
Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon
Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position
China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook