Sitemap - 2025 - The Overshoot
Guest Post: Dear IMF, It's Not *Only* Fiscal
What Should the U.S. Try to Achieve in Argentina?
China's "Anti-Involution" Campaign: Global Implications
Inflation is Persistent and Consumers are Flush. Falling Rates Could be Dangerous.
U.S. Job Market Still (Surprisingly?) Good. Inflation Risk Is Paramount.
What is the Federal Reserve Endgame?
Inflation Is Moving the Wrong Way
The Job Market Is Strong, Inflation Is Too Fast, and the Government Is Bananas
The U.S. Is Not "Winning the Trade War"
The IMF's Unreasonable External Balance Benchmarks
How Türkiye Pulled It Off (-ish)
U.S. Inflation Still Robust Even Before Tariff Impact
The U.S. Economy Does Not Need Lower Interest Rates (Yet)
How Credible Is the 2025Q1 GDP Decline?
This is What Normalization Looks Like (Mostly)
Exorbitant Privileges, Burdens, etc. and the Implications for Fiscal Policy
China's Edge in the "Trade Struggle" is More Theoretical than Real
Thoughts from the Past Two Weeks
How to Think About the Tariffs
Trying to Parse the pre-"Liberation Day" Wage/Inflation Dynamics
The Fed Tries to Thread the Stagflation Needle
The Atlanta Fed's Nowcast Is Broken (For Now)
The Europeans Should Give Russia's Reserves to Ukraine Now
Time Is Only on the Russians' Side If We Give It to Them
U.S. Inflation Chugs Along. But Watch Out for Goods.
Contra Krugman on Current Account Controversies
Trump or No Trump, 2% Inflation Was Not Coming Any Time Soon
Thinking About the Financial Implications of the U.S. Fiscal Position
China's Depression and the U.S. Inflation Outlook