Sitemap - 2023 - The Overshoot

The U.S. Economy Is Booming. Or Stagnating? The Mystery of the Missing Interest.

Managing Economic and Financial Entanglements With China

The Threat from China's Capital Flight

U.S. Wage Growth Is Slowing, Somewhat

Is the Fed Peaking Too Soon?

The U.S. Economy Is Booming (For Now). What Does It Mean?

New Episode of UN/BALANCED!

Tracking Russia's Financial Outflows, Again

The Russia Sanctions Need a Reset

Are Bond Yields Too High, or Too Low?

"Excess" Savings Are Higher Now (Sort Of): More Highlights from the 2023 Comprehensive NIPA Revisions

Less Tax Evasion, a Profit Boom, and a Persistent Interest Puzzle: Highlights of the 2023 Comprehensive NIPA Revisions (Part 1)

The Fed's Bullishness Is Pushing Up Rates

Is Underlying Inflation Finally Decelerating, Or Revealing Itself?

Danish Weight Loss Drugs vs. Chinese Cars: Two Models of Export Booms

U.S. Job Churn Has Normalized. Wage Growth and Underlying Inflation Have Not. (Yet?)

The NY Fed Trading Desk's Time to Shine?

China Is Now Growing Slower Than the U.S.

The Unresolved Tension Between Prices and Incomes

Europe's Imbalances in Pandemic and War

Settling Into 4% Inflation?

There Is No "Stealth Fiscal Stimulus"

The Case for "Higher for Longer": Prices are Disinflating, But Not Wages (Yet)

New Episode of UN/BALANCED!

Is the Chinese Government Pushing Down the Yuan?

China's Missing Post-Pandemic Rebound

What Has Policy Tightening Accomplished So Far?

Is This Disinflation "Immaculate" or "Transitory"?

The Overshoot Turns 2!

America's "Excess Savings" Are Going Away. Inflation Is Not.

Financial Fragmentation

Who Has Been Buying U.S. Treasury Debt?

New Episode of UN/BALANCED!

The "Easy Disinflation" Is (Mostly) Over. The Fed Grapples With What Comes Next.

An American Investment Boom Would Be Good for the World

"Greedflation" and the Profits Equation

Where Has Russia's Current Account Surplus Gone?

The Statistical Discrepancy Returns! (In the Other Direction)

Back to Square One on the Russia Sanctions?

The Case of the Missing Planes

Disinflation Noise vs. Persistent Signal

Inflation In The *Very* Long Run

Banks Are Blowing Up While the Economy is Strong. Time to Worry?

Guest Post: How do emerging markets get into trouble? Let me count the ways

Guest Post: Creative Destruction After the Pandemic

Guest Post: Toby Nangle on Why Asset Managers Should Refuse Bad Clients

New Episode of UN/BALANCED!

Doing My Part to Raise R*

Thoughts on the Bank Bailouts

New Episode of UN/BALANCED!

Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy

Checking in on the U.S. Housing Market

Americans' Incomes Are Rising Too Fast for 2% Inflation

Closing the Gaps in the Sanctions on Russia

"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"

"Quantitative Tightening" and the U.S. Banking System

The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More

The Mysterious $300 Billion Flow Out of China

Whither Globalization? And What Would that Even Mean, Anyway?

New Episode of UN/BALANCED!

Why the Fed Is Still Raising Rates

America's "Excess" Household Savings Are Going Away

Evaluating the Russia Sanctions via the Balance of Payments

Russia Sanctions Update: CIS-picious Trading Patterns

Some Thoughts on U.S. International Economic Statecraft

How Was the U.S. Current Account Deficit Financed In 2022?

Great News on Inflation! Will It Last?

Introducing UN/BALANCED: A New Podcast with Michael Pettis

Is the U.S. Job Market Disinflationary Now?