Sitemap - 2023 - The Overshoot
The Overshoot's 2023 Year In Review
The Rich Have all the "Excess" Cash Now
A Longer-term Look at Argentina With Michael Pettis
The Fed Prepares for Rate Cuts. But Why?
Argentina and the Limits of Fiscal Space
The U.S. Economy Is Booming. Or Stagnating? The Mystery of the Missing Interest.
Managing Economic and Financial Entanglements With China
The Threat from China's Capital Flight
U.S. Wage Growth Is Slowing, Somewhat
The U.S. Economy Is Booming (For Now). What Does It Mean?
Tracking Russia's Financial Outflows, Again
The Russia Sanctions Need a Reset
Are Bond Yields Too High, or Too Low?
The Fed's Bullishness Is Pushing Up Rates
Is Underlying Inflation Finally Decelerating, Or Revealing Itself?
Danish Weight Loss Drugs vs. Chinese Cars: Two Models of Export Booms
U.S. Job Churn Has Normalized. Wage Growth and Underlying Inflation Have Not. (Yet?)
The NY Fed Trading Desk's Time to Shine?
China Is Now Growing Slower Than the U.S.
The Unresolved Tension Between Prices and Incomes
Europe's Imbalances in Pandemic and War
There Is No "Stealth Fiscal Stimulus"
The Case for "Higher for Longer": Prices are Disinflating, But Not Wages (Yet)
Is the Chinese Government Pushing Down the Yuan?
China's Missing Post-Pandemic Rebound
What Has Policy Tightening Accomplished So Far?
Is This Disinflation "Immaculate" or "Transitory"?
America's "Excess Savings" Are Going Away. Inflation Is Not.
Who Has Been Buying U.S. Treasury Debt?
The "Easy Disinflation" Is (Mostly) Over. The Fed Grapples With What Comes Next.
An American Investment Boom Would Be Good for the World
"Greedflation" and the Profits Equation
Where Has Russia's Current Account Surplus Gone?
The Statistical Discrepancy Returns! (In the Other Direction)
Back to Square One on the Russia Sanctions?
The Case of the Missing Planes
Disinflation Noise vs. Persistent Signal
Inflation In The *Very* Long Run
Banks Are Blowing Up While the Economy is Strong. Time to Worry?
Guest Post: How do emerging markets get into trouble? Let me count the ways
Guest Post: Creative Destruction After the Pandemic
Guest Post: Toby Nangle on Why Asset Managers Should Refuse Bad Clients
Reconsidering the "2020s as 1940s" Analogy
Checking in on the U.S. Housing Market
Americans' Incomes Are Rising Too Fast for 2% Inflation
Closing the Gaps in the Sanctions on Russia
"Soft Landing"? More Like "No Landing"
"Quantitative Tightening" and the U.S. Banking System
The Bank of England's Jonathan Haskel on Inflation, Productivity, Brexit, and More
The Mysterious $300 Billion Flow Out of China
Whither Globalization? And What Would that Even Mean, Anyway?
Why the Fed Is Still Raising Rates
America's "Excess" Household Savings Are Going Away
Evaluating the Russia Sanctions via the Balance of Payments
Russia Sanctions Update: CIS-picious Trading Patterns
Some Thoughts on U.S. International Economic Statecraft
How Was the U.S. Current Account Deficit Financed In 2022?
Great News on Inflation! Will It Last?